Yeah. That ties in with the comment I made about the ‘recovered’ numbers being misleading as well, since that implies they’re now fine, which most of them aren’t. They’re just not dead.
And for a bit of fun/good news: Our local public transport authority is putting boxes of facemasks in their candy/drinks machines. Also because they’ll be mandatory after June 1st when most lines fully open again.
Though…
If the ‘cases’ is actually 10x higher (which is what the math seems to indicate they are actually using), then that means 10x the number ‘recovered’ as well. Indicating 90%-ish of those ARE just fine - at least, fine enough they aren’t complaining or noticing they were sick in the first place.
Are they charging for those masks?
That sounds like a cool solution… Though … I won’t be surprised to see the municipal transport authorities here charge for them. Their revenue has taken huge hits.
Of course they’re charging for the masks 
Giving them away at this point would be utterly pointless (not to mention there won’t be any left in 5 minutes 
), because they’re still basically trying to keep people out of public transport.
Oh, yea. Duh. “Gone in 60 seconds.”
So they are going to “require” the use of facemasks but will sell said facemasks for profit? What happens if some folks just don’t have one or can’t afford to purchase one from the candy/drinks machines? And while I’m thinking about it, associating a facemask with a candy/drinks machines is just morbid.
Just an odd thought that crossed my mind as I read this… 
You might know earlier!
5-7 days you’d be symptomatic for most.
The 14 is to cover folks whom are asymptomatic.
Same way it’s 6’ with both people wearing masks and taking
precautions bringing it down to 60/40% or so. AKA Acceptable risk
25’ no mask and running is common spread distance with normal
airflow on a warm and sunny day. The mask is for you to not give
CV-19 out if you’re not symptomatic, less for protection. Unless a
N95 or better high filtration system you’re just being safe to others.
Without it? If you’re unwell, every person you meet or pass by
you’re putting a revolver (well ok, one with little over 8 rounds,
but you get the point) to them and spinning the cylinder and
pulling the trigger. Do they feel lucky being near you?
Sounds like you took rather good precautions. On the plus side
they’re ‘in the barrier’ now. So folks can chill a bit.
@Homestead
Splutty covered it. We have no where near adequate testing.
The fatality rate of two of the North American variants is higher
but not that high. Also, the death rate is under-counted right now.
Five states have not released any numbers since opening up,
and some of their claims do not match the hospital records.
Everything listed there is confirmed though. Per your point…
Recovery might not matter as much except for post-infection
symptoms and conditions. Of which more and more are turning up.
Two major sports colleges have already created waivers to break
contracts on covid-19 infection because your lifelong o2 intake and
lung capacity take a hit. The rest are expected to follow suit since
there are no court challenges.
Since it’s looking like antibodies are not as persistent as we’d like,
recovered numbers are not as useful there either. From blood donations
of earliest effected in Jan-Feb patients, show they have little to no effective
antibodies (as of week of may 10th). The number of patients is -way- too
low to make any kind of conclusion, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Yeah i know sounds awful. I wanted to throw recovered folks a party.
Perhaps have them lead the way, with their buffered immune systems.
It’s just their economic impact is unknown yet. Therefore less important.
Deaths/day is important as is new infections per day. (duh)
Current infections too, but that’s easily monitored from hospital
bed usage. The scary part is we’re getting close to 2k/day deaths.
At that point the number of deaths have a greater economic impact
than being closed down.
Good questions and discussion! 
We’ve required them on public transport, and in any store or common area
since May 1st. April was full of ‘how to make a mask’ and many places were
handing them out mid-April to mid-may here. The vending machine ones here
are inexpensive but also a necessity… also hardly at a profit. More a dummy
tax, and also give a way for someone who is trying to be stubborn to get one.
No excuses.
The kind of person who does not wear a mask is also the one
who would hide a zombie bite… keep an eye on them 
What’s funny is in 30+ years some of these will be on the books
and not enforced. Like the spitting laws of the 1918 outbreak.
And just a joke to those who do not follow what has become
the common convention of wearing a mask in a public place.
Freakin zombie bites 
… so… none of the numbers are right…
Explain? I don’t understand why ‘it doesn’t matter?’ More numbers that don’t matter?
Ouch… so… vaccine also less likely? Or are vaccine induced anti-bodies better than those induced from the actual disease?
Tangential from vaccine but related - Treatment. I’ve seen some headlines for a vaccine - that I personally find VERY optimistic, but haven’t noticed any [edit] recent [edit] ‘headlines’ about hopes for treatment. Anything you’ve heard lately?
Useful for what?
I can see deaths per day being important as it is ‘most’ measurable (though, you say that isn’t a good number either). But I don’t see how ‘new infections per day’ can be directly usable since testing is also increasing daily. How do you work a trend line that makes ‘today’ comparable to ‘14 days ago?’ (For valid money value, for example, to compare spending power between years they must be converted to a common number. - ‘2020 dollars’ must be converted to ‘1972’ dollars. More tests daily is like monetary ‘inflation.’ The numbers ‘look’ bigger - but really aren’t.
Also - Can you ‘guesstimate’ what the thinking is on what it might ‘really’ be? Since clearly the numbers don’t have it right. Is there a number that is ‘really’ being used rather than what is being displayed? (Like the ‘case number’ isn’t what is ‘really’ the ‘case number’ being used.)
I guess for me, it is like, if we don’t know anything, then we don’t know anything… The only thing we ‘really’ know is, it kills some number of people who get it, more ARE going to get it, so more are going to die.
Surely there is SOME agreement in the scientific/medical community - even if it is acknowledged as off by some measure. I mean, otherwise all comparisons are almost useless. Not just between states, but between countries too. (Across countries being especially important because of larger statistical numbers and because otherwise anything internal is ‘blind’ comparison. That is, speculation.)
People can buy masks elsewhere as well for a much cheaper price, actually. So that shouldn’t be an issue.
And we’re Dutch 
So morbid is normal!
Wait until you visit a butcher shop there… and see right next the ground beef and pork ---- “Filet Americain.”
The Dutch are cannibals, I tell ya.
Interesting site that provides some analysis based on anonymized cell-phone data: https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard
USA-only, so far, though the company doing the analysis is Norwegian. 
Handy.
Would be nice, though, if they tied it to population density… They’ve got it down to county level so that would be easily available. Down to zip code level is available too. Seems it would be very simple to do and could increase their ‘encounter’ estimates without relying on everyone carrying their phone with them.
Makes a huge difference. How far a person is moving in zip code 10162 where the population density is 151,835/square mile (NY, NY) vs. 92338 where the density is less than .02 people/sq mile (Ludlow, California, population 10) would make a difference in potential contacts.
Where I live, for example, it is 1/3rd of a mile to my mail box from my front door. I can just see my closest neighbor’s house from my mail box. If I checked my mail every day (which I don’t, but if I did), I’ve been very ‘mobile,’ but have had zero chance of ‘encounters.’
Just how much you move around gets to be a less and less reliable indicator as population density falls. It implies there is always a purpose/distination for travel. Country folks can go ‘no place’ and enjoy it.
Going to your mail box in an apartment building in NYC almost guarantees you encounter a lot of people.
I haven’t looked at the methodology, though I believe they make it public. But I think the basic theory they’re using is “You used to move about THAT much, and now you move about THIS much.” So sorta apples to apples. Could be wrong, though…not gonna research.
The word you want is incomplete.
Incomplete data is still quite useful to researchers. Especially
if you know how and where it is incomplete. There is no
huge machine that ticks +1 every time a human dies. There
are what is called “Margins of Error.” Which are equally important.
When a margin of error is too large then you should reconsider
the data and it’s sources. This is why having a large Sample Set
is preferred. Those links should have enough examples to follow.
Now inaccurate statistics or numbers, which i think(?) you
might have alluded to are different. Here are two cases as to
why you want to avoid that. Sadly in the US, politics has tried to
overrule statistics accuracy . For example in an earlier post of mine
Florida was mentioned as have taken a strange turn after a
political visit. Turns out the states attorney’s directive was not
accepted by all:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/concerns-erupt-integrity-floridas-covid-19-website-70774527
As mentioned in an earlier post, folks who are processing statistics
noticed this change. Right after a political visit to the FL Governor,
and a letter from the state’s attorney to the Dade ME.
All the Florida hospitals in population centers are requesting
more respirators. Despite the state reporting low numbers
and all is well for a Memorial Weekend beach opening.
Second example is of what happens when the person does not
quit and tries to hide something in a bad graphic. Georgia’s mid-month
reporting was done via a graph.
Speaks for itself really. Those who have unraveled that mess
found that either deaths suddenly stopped or the state told hospitals
to no longer confirm CoviD-19 deaths in Georgia on May 10th on.
So the data here is inaccurate, and the might never truly be known.
Georgia has joined Florida and Texas in no longer coding suspected
SARS-2-CoV patients per CDC guidelines. Small irony as the CDC
is in Georgia.
Rushed wording on my part. Until we know if people can get reinfected
or if the secondary conditions are debilitating, this is just a data
point to give percentages to other data. The economists and public
policy folks at the university (two of whom consulted for cabinet members)
are not interested. Because a recovered person is the same as a
not infected person for all intents and purposes of economics.
Medical folks will use this more later when secondary condition
information is solidified. Right now it’s data for use later.
When in meetings the lead just say ‘doesn’t matter’ and move to
the next data points. I mimicked that.
Never stated that.
This is more for re-infection rates. It’s also, too early to say.
Many vaccines and treatment methods are looking promising!
I was even coming to give a good news type post today.
You are somewhat correct though.
The SARS based antibody vaccines are having independent setbacks.
Their own persistence in the test groups seems shorter than would
be useful, except as a stopgap while other vaccines are tested.
I’ll ask. I’m a volunteer retiree crunching numbers for researchers.
While they are nice enough to include us on all details and answer
questions i am not the lead. This is hitting a moving target though.
From my background i would never guestimate. I’d make a decision
based on the data on hand and deal with the consequences, or look
for more data. Postponing the decision. All the while doing what is
expected in the situation. Who knows what they’ll say.
What i can do is take the global estimated fatality rate while in
shelter-in-place. Then compare it to the total US population.
If unchecked say a continued open state and free travel. Using
current shelter-in-place rate of infection is 16.2 million. 19.1m
would be a better estimate because i’m not taking into account
overwhelming the medical services and supplies.
Do i think that realistic? No. I’d hope extreme measures would
be taken as the exponential rate rises, before we hit those numbers.
Then again we’re racing to open beaches and summer venues
when even China shut down during their largest national holiday.
The numbers i’ve been posting and the most common independent ones
you are seeing, these are the agreement. Margins of error are low and
confirmations are high. Yes, one half percent infected with a R0 of 3+ in an
active population that is looking to ease restrictions is a disaster waiting
to happen. That’s not even up for debate.
Heck it was the common statement made by all the professionals in the
mid-month congressional hearings. Other than a need to up testing by 900-1000%
My stats profs used to get so mad when I told them statistics was a marketing tool. 
Sorry. Didn’t mean to imply you did.
It was a question relating to antibodies after recovery not protecting, so wondering if that also applied to vaccines. (I wouldn’t “think” they were different but I didn’t “know” for sure. But you’ve answered it anyway. Thanks. Same problem for vaccines as for really having it. A vaccine that produces antibodies but they don’t last isn’t much use.
I just get really nervous when I see politicians ‘planning’ on having a vaccine. Or ‘planning’ on having a treatment, for that matter. Though a treatment is ‘more’ likely. At least, in the time periods that will make any real difference. But still not something I would ever recommend making plans around.
I hope you aren’t talking about Moderna’s vaccine - they are getting TORN up over their positive announcement right before a share offering and then the data they released was too little to support their claim. There is some serious grumbling going on about an SEC investigation.
Or Gilead’s Remdesivir. Not as much upset in the market, but folks still not happy after digesting their ‘data’ and realizing it isn’t as hopeful as it was made to sound. Knock a few days off recovery and no data to support any lives saved? Some unhappy investors.
Please say there is something honestly hopeful. (I just can NOT be optimistic about a ‘safe’ vaccine by end of year. Especially not one that will be of any use to an old guy.)
On the bright side, ‘setbacks’ because they aren’t producing enough antibodies, or have shorter persistence, or any of the other things mentioned is actually good to hear. What I haven’t heard is ‘they do more harm than good’ - so that is great since it has been an issue in previous coronavirus vaccine attempts.
Really? With a ‘low margin of error?’ Okay… But… Call me skeptical again. That seems AWFULLY low.
Testing… as a solution or beyond diagnostic… Again… skeptical… 330,000,000 people. Even testing only 10% daily (which I wouldn’t think would make any difference - though maybe that’s enough?) would be 33,000,000 tests DAILY. Produced, distributed, administered - correctly - … I don’t see that kind of capacity as realistic. Testing beyond diagnostic for data collection, sure. The more the merrier. But as a prerequisite for action… I don’t think we have a national capacity, let alone a global capacity, for that kind of production. And accurately administering them on that scale in a way that the results are reliable? When people can’t even get my fast food order right? Nah. Not happening.
I
Actually, I did some crunching on the data of a few countries from that worldmeter site. It doesn’t look to me liek they are doing anything as complicated as you described. It looks for all the world like they are basing their ‘projected’ deaths by August on a pretty simple calc. It ‘looks’ like .07% X population with some minor adjustment - that I’m guessing/speculating is based on the time since some number of cases in the country. I don’t think it is ‘first’ case date… but I couldn’t figure out if it is ‘25,’ 50’ or something else. IF that is what the adjustment is based on at all. But some relatively minor tweak of a very basic calculation of some sort.
It ‘appears’ they are assuming a 1%-ish mortality rate with 70%+/- of the population infected (if that is the word) by the end of August to get their top end number for their ‘cumulative deaths’ projection. Holding some back for the ‘second wave?’ I would assume… Though, frankly - skeptical. I think their numbers are optimistic. Between now and the end of August is a long time… Also, I’m very, very skeptical of their number since they seem to be using the same basic calc across sets of countries… If I were still working, I might be asking if they were forcing their data to fit the timeline instead of setting the timeline with the data. Looks rather ‘convenient.’
Worldometer’s projection of 143,357 (115,378 to 207,364) deaths by end of August sounds too optimistic to me. On the other hand… I am VERY skeptical of 16 million.
I ‘think’ the actual number of people infected/had it/have it/whatever the ‘right’ way to say it is, is a lot higher. More than 10%. Maybe even 20%. Getting that from the Worldometer info by setting a base trend line for ‘new cases.’ Then looking at the relationship between the jump in new cases with a jump in new tests, eyeballing the older part of the line (before testing jumped) to extrapolate a number of ‘new cases’ that could be attributed to ‘increased testing’ vs. spreading infections. Then using that to get a number for asymptomatic people in the total population who have it right now or have had it but haven’t been tested - or weren’t tested with the right kind of test. Some of the reports of sampling being done finding asymptomatic cases on each coast seems to support it. (They keep calling them ‘studies.’ I hate that. Slap some words on a ‘sampling,’ call it a ‘study,’ and get a headline. Testing a handful of people, the only stratification being “they were on the street for some reason,” is ‘sampling.’ )
Anyway. That would put the U.S. at more like 333,000+/- 90,000 deaths at 70% infected. They seem to be calling that end of August, though I couldn’t find any rationale for it.
(Eyeballing because I don’t have the tools/was too lazy to figure out the actual variations. And it is all guess work and reverse engineering their numbers anyway, so more effort than worth.)
Heheh. Yea. Been there. If you think that is bad, you ought to see the process for determining median lethal dose (LD50) of oddball chemicals.
The process of rushing data will never give good results. Which is why figuring out an ‘actual’ mortality rate for any disease is always ‘after the fact.’ As you’ve said, you work with what you have, though.
I never postpone a decision. Deciding not to act is a decision. 
Hey Home, you don’t have to worry about your phone data being wrong. Your phone doesn’t work anyway out there in the boonies!
You’re pretty safe there now, though…
/wave /wave
LoL! Right!
My ISP shows me in a variety of places along the East Coast from Virginia down to Florida from one day to the next.
When I use Google Maps to try and navigate somewhere, I have to manually enter my address. Otherwise it seems to pick a random starting spot somewhere within what looks like about a 15 mile stretch of nearby road.
Hard to triangulate with only one tower hitting my phone, apparently. hehheh. Though, my reception is a lot better now. I think I whined enough they may have adjusted something so I rarely have calls drop any more. I still have to stay in one spot or I can’t be heard, but it doesn’t drop. 
Yea. I’m good. Normal life for me. Miss the kids though. Haven’t seen them since February. Would have visited a couple times at least. They aren’t traveling, so hasn’t been a call to babysit the animals, either.
I haven’t said “hi” but I have been noticing you on the forums so know you’re okay.
LoL. I bet.
Mind you, it IS a ‘tool.’ And marketing DOES love it. And politics… though… I guess that is ‘marketing’ too…
It does have a few other (ab)uses, too, though, I guess.