How is COVID19 where you live?

Poetry · May 8, 2020, 9:17am

Yeah it’s that weird fine line with something this infectious.
We’ve seen joggers/runner deep lung breathing when infected,
but not symptomatic creates a cloud of sorts. it does not
last long but runners passing each other, becomes like
a relay baton being passed. Not the best analogy but it
gets the point across. It’s not airborne, but has airborne
traits in certain conditions. So frustrating!

The park by me is a hotspot, and killed more people in one
month than gang violence in the whole city this year. Yet people
keep running there. People even set up blankets along the paths
on warm days. It’s heartbreaking to see the number of people in
the park slowly diminish by their own actions or ignorance.
This is not even one of the top 5 hotspots in the city.
It’s been sobering working on local numbers lately. Even if
we’re not an epicenter or even a opened up state.

Working on local numbers more and more, because many states are
no longer reporting, delaying figures, or giving partial statistics.
Suddenly faceless number of infected and dying is now claimed
to be privacy issues. Congress is working on giving blanket immunity
to employers, and insurance carriers too. AZ fired the tracking and
infections data teams and will be joining other states with imperfect
data. Nebraska is not giving accurate numbers to Creighton nor
the pandemic taskforce. Creighton noted the errors when their own
data was given back to them by the state with substantially reduced
numbers of both dead and infected. With increased numbers of tested
listed, a number that was greater then their testing capacity,
and showing a much larger percentage testing negative.

This comes as the President makes a statement on how accurate
testing gives poor political optics.

The weirdest one is perhaps right when live viral loads in meat
processed 7 days before and wrapped in plastic are found, Nebraska
stops giving notifications. By blocking infection numbers of meat
packing workers and produced meat infection rates.

Neighboring states are expected to follow suit.

Even with limited accurate reporting active cases are taking a
huge upswing in the first week of states opening up.

Plus side!
Vaccines are being tested and showing good results.
This time next year we could have cleared vaccines and
plans to get them out en mass. There are multiple vaccinations
being tested, many with clear early testing results.
Methods and designs vary, which suggests science has
multiple solutions to this single problem.

This is important because some will fail in wider testing. Having
so many on good paths towards success means one or more
will hopefully make it to the finish line.

Many successful treatment methods abroad are starting
to get approval for testing in the US. Even a few being developed
locally that might see use abroad. Pharma, physical treatments,
plus even just a few common sense changes for the better.
Experience and learning, a strong human survival trait, is starting to
help with the situation.

Many countries and states remaining closed are forming local
mutual assistance groups. Communities coming together when
needed for the month of May. Hopefully this trend will continue.

Here in my city many aldermen are organizing volunteers for
groups, and funneling donations where needed. A few suburbs
have been forming ‘shopping pools’ to limit exposure. ’

Many crafters are donating masks, and most places are
handing out masks to those who want to enter their businesses.
For those either ignorant of the order, or forgot theirs.

On a personal level.
Within my building the number of people just checking in on
each other, without being intrusive or nosy has been grand.
Masks are in use, and people looking out for each other.
Most know the park is a hotspot and avoid it it for that reason.
It’s the most common shared info after hello.

Please
Be Safe, Be Sound, Be Wise.

tpsabre · May 8, 2020, 7:02pm

read this morning the mayor of las vegas offered her city to the WH as a “control group”. opening up the casinos and whatever else.

Poetry · May 12, 2020, 3:49pm

Seeing how numbers are in IA, MO, and some other places
…You have to find something to laugh at or you’ll drown in the tears.

Good news stuff.
Many treatment plans are showing increases in survivability from the
initial onset to the first remission. Antibody loaded blood is finding
use, and the requested donations from survivors are steady in the
main urban clusters (in the US). It’s been a good way to check on
secondary symptoms too. “Purple toes may be pretty but it means
you might be in trouble.” gave me a laugh.

Reading about how many countries are spending agriculture and
interior money to get over supply chain hiccups. Seeing restaurants
working with suppliers to package meal and produce boxes to
take on a different role and give folks not only a workplace but work.
A nice way to re-route and stay a business in the new normal.

Still some surpluses exist. Many countries set up pick up locations
and making public announcements to get them used. Often for low
or no cost to the family. Rather than reimburse the parent company
for pouring out or destroying product (the current US method). Many
are getting help with packaging and distribution assistance. Getting
supplies to the locked down populace as a end result.

Speaking of lockdowns. Many are finding numbers down enough to
have limited ones! Lockdowns ended because the lockdown was a
success and not a public demand, that is. Though some places like
NZ and South Korea are thinking a stricter closed border policy, especially
to countries with actively increasing infections. While a bit scary,
it’s also understandable. The US being a case study in how
lockdowns lifted early effects all neighbors regardless of status.

Not soliciting/endorsing this as I do not use it (yet?). Making folks
aware that even in the US we’re catching on to helping farmers
markets get you what you need. If someone does use this please
chime in about your experience.

Lastly.

Lyn · May 12, 2020, 7:15pm

…it was the snoring…

Splutty · May 12, 2020, 10:06pm

Despite the header of this article, it’s still a funny read But unfortunately it also points out how it appears the US is currently going about things.

As an aside, over here people are looking at the US and kind of wondering what on earth is going on. Friend of mine (from the US) made the comment that in these sort of times, the ‘freedom loving’ is a real impediment

Poetry · May 13, 2020, 1:29pm

The one person i dated who complained about my snoring…
could shake objects off shelves with hers.
Glad you got a laugh

mmow · May 13, 2020, 1:56pm

Poetry · May 13, 2020, 2:18pm

That was a grand article. I’ve passed it on
to some others who would enjoy it. Thank you.

I wish it was just freedom loving.
One nice thing about doing volunteer work as a
drone number cruncher for a University, is I get
to chat with staff and professors. Something I
missed since retiring from the Uni I worked at.

This was part of a discussion more than once.
It’s more a tribalism developed with intent since the
Hastert era. You look at political strategists then and
they saw what were called battleground states dropping
away from their ‘side’. So the push was to creates a
I Win, They Lose, instead of Better Luck Next Time.
“Address the less educated, and appeal to their competitive
spirit.” “Take up conservative views discarded by our
opponents.” were two key points. The idea is if you can
get from ‘lets discuss’ to ‘my way or nothing’ of the Hastert Rule
you might lose a few states, but the ones you recover will
be yours for the long haul.

Nothing can show this clearer than the DeVoss propaganda
companies she and her family hired for to engineer the protests.
Beware left-leaning article, but the math and $$$ tracking check out.

Folks started noticing a lot of the same people at different state
capitals protesting the same thing ‘open my state.’
Interestingly enough they were in decent PPE. Unlike
the protesters they were leading and organizing around them.
It is quite literally a play from the Russian Crimea and later
Ukraine war play book.
Right now these protesters are sick and even dying in droves.
Their purpose served, are no longer relevant .
In Michigan one ward was fully a third full of protesters that
were there the weeks before. Wisconsin protestors have started
to refuse being CoviD-19 tested after being admitted, because
they don’t want to give the ‘other side’ numbers ‘they’ can use.

So without getting too political, the majority want to follow
distancing and hunker down for the greater good. Others
are goaded to action in a purely political move using our
human competitive nature. I mean it’s worked so far.

The current selling point is chilling. The propaganda agencies
are no longer staffing events themselves but telling those they’ve
motivated to be leaders and volunteers,
“Those who get sick and die are heroes. But keep protesting.”
“If you get sick you get sick. Never back down.”

The lack of critical reasoning is stunning. To protest something as
not being dangerous enough to warrant some discretion.
That laws requiring masks are an attack on freedoms. Then
when sick and dying in droves, being told that death is honorable.
They are the WWII fighters on Normandy Beach, fighting for
freedoms. In their mind, or rather what they’ve been (s/t)old and
is the excuse they use as they fall. Killed by the very thing they
protest as not dangerous.

Lyn · May 13, 2020, 4:30pm

This, so very much this. ^^

I’ve never understood how anyone could ignore the elephant standing on their toes. My parents, especially my dad, were very much into critical understanding in order to make a choice between ideals. It was an interesting dynamic because I don’t think they realized their non-verbal communication was that obvious to me.

I’ve always been one to actually look at things and think about “what if” in many forms. Being an artist I began drawing at a very early age (can definitely remember having to clean my crayon marks off the wall). I even remember taking aspects of two different images and trying to combine them in some fashion or other to make a different image. My art teacher in HS gave a few of us in class free reign but expected our best efforts.

So critical thinking and reasoning is used in so many ways. I do not think schools even teach anything remotely close to critical thinking these days. I do recall how my grade school teachers would offer up different views for us to look at and then decide which one made more sense.

I could go on but you’ve hit the nail on the proverbial head.

Lyn · May 13, 2020, 4:34pm

…yes I did. It was actually the very first thing that popped into my head. heheheh

My dad’s snoring used to shake the walls and I remember my mom sometimes staking a claim to the couch. She was definitely appreciative of my dad’s work schedule where he would work swing shifts and night shifts … silence for sleeping was a genuine gift as far as she was concerned.

But that lasted only until dad finally saw a specialist and found out there was a simple surgery to fix this for him. Once it was over, he rarely snored…so there is something to having a corrective surgery for your nasal passages.

Lyn · May 13, 2020, 10:32pm

Now this is by far the best video I’ve seen today. We all love our beloved pets and in these trying times they are lifelines to sanity.

Enjoy:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/hospital-worker-sings-lean-husky-125916782.html

Splutty · May 14, 2020, 9:55am

There’s one small advantage to this whole crisis. People being stuck at home, having to do things they don’t want, etc, makes them a bit more… Not sure if appreciative is the right word, but at least aware of the problems that us with serious mental health issues have.

Being told to “Get over it” when going nuts inside the house kind of puts things into a more personal and rather stark perspective. I’m sure it won’t last, but it’s kind of nice, in a rather cynical way, to see people having to re-evaluate their own mental health.

And I know that sounds pretty dark, but as I said, that’s what some of us have had to live with on a daily basis for all our lives.

Alphea · May 16, 2020, 2:56pm

Poetry · May 16, 2020, 3:15pm

Still crunching numbers. Numbers are steady.
Slow drops in urban areas with lockdowns.
Matched and now exceeded by the opening up
of areas elsewhere causing more cases.

We added one team member friday who i have zero
envy for. I’m doing adult numbers and it hurts my soul.
She’s collating people under 20 who had Covid-19,
recovered, and their life changing secondary conditions.
Including the 28 toddler deaths the past week.
We had our first bomb threat, which is amusing.
My brothers lab has had 4, so he’s still winning.

One thing almost ready for publishing and peer review.
The park by me we tracked how CV-19 passed between runners
like a baton with a 5-7 day tick off. Their breath the likely
culprit, as a runners deep breathing expels particles like
you are shouting. The runners in turn infecting dog walkers
and those who decided to set up a blanket on a warm day.
Sadly the running path also goes past an ACF for mentally
challenged individuals. They were doing regular testing and
all the staff and delivery people, and these were clear. The
outbreak started with 4 residents who like to stand outside
and people watch.

Local region.
With the forced and unexpected opening up, the Wisconsin
data should be interesting. The Madison area hospitals in
particular have been telling local politicians to stuff it. Thus
their reporting of cases and changes has been exemplary.
They even make notes when a CoviD-19 likely patient refuses
a test or even an antibody count. Coding properly per CDC
and WHO guidelines.

Iowa is a mess and their reporting is the opposite of WI.
State’s number and hospital patient codes are nowhere
even close to alignment. It’s almost as bad as Florida.

Anyhoo, the nation.

Daily deaths are not looking to get under 1000 at any measurable point.
This looks to be at 2000/day soon at the current rate of escalation from cases
spiking from the opening up of areas.

Most interesting is the sick and elderly are no longer the main
infection or death statistic. Numbers are surging especially for
deaths in the 30-50 age groups. These are also stay at home
folks who just made a foray for supplies or had an unwise moment.
NYC and our Northeast coast data has show the change to be
nearly 2/3rds of new cases are in this group. This is a -good-
thing as the numbers plateau or decline. It means risky behavior
outbreaks are decreasing, and increased testing of sick and elderly
is working.

Speaking of risky outbreaks.
There is pushback in looking into a new or re-coding of patients
who participate in risky behaviors, protests, and the like by the CDC.
This singling out has privacy issues written all over it, but places
that are trying to track and vector or even contact trace cannot
realistically compare these individuals vs the public at large.

In the Midwest protestors and those taking high risk behaviors,
when it’s notated, are by far the largest vector source. Their R0
is staggeringly high. This is not poetic license, i had to sit down
when I saw some Michigan individuals who had infected over
10 people conservatively. At one protest a canteen was passed
around as an act of defiance to show how safe things are.
Next time pass a bottle of Jack or something high proof around, please.
At least then you have a chance of not killing family members.

My west coast volunteer had to take a break. As i said it takes a toll.

East coast is a weird mixed bag as Memorial Day is a traditional beach
opening day. So data is all over the place. Testing is the biggest issue.
Numbers reported in many Southeastern states are steady but only
because testing has not increased. So decisions are being made by
leaders, either in bad faith or in ignorance about opening recreation
and group activities up. Obviously things have not followed the statement
that CV-19 will ‘Miraculously’ go away in April, by one US leader.

Oh and the new number cruncher addition? She is another grad
student. So the old folks who are volunteering are outnumbered
by the whipper snappers for the moment. It’s nice to see someone
wanting to help who is younger though, with what to many people is
quite tedious and boring statistical analysis.

Anyhoo. I’m going to open a window and look at zero data
today and tomorrow. Birdsong will be my daytime music.

Please be wise in your actions.

Splutty · May 16, 2020, 3:24pm

And that’s why all sport schools here are closed until at least September, despite huge protests. “We’re not any different than a bar!”. Yes. Yes you are.

Also the ‘recovered’ data is dangerous, because it gives people the idea that people that live through it will be fine. A LOT of them are everything but fine. Some have debilitating lasting effects, some suffer from serious PTSD, it’s bad…

juulz · May 17, 2020, 1:27pm

I had to pick up my parents at DTW’s McNamara terminal yesterday. They flew home from Florida. Detroit was the closest flight they could get to Grand Rapids. My mom (81) has really bad allergies and the pollen came out the past week in Florida and she has been in a panic to get home. She also has C. difficile, which she’s having trouble getting under control so she’s a bit of a mess. (That’s a whole 'nother story).

I had them collect their luggage, go to the restrooms closest to the exit and change into new clothes one at a time. I had slippers for them and I bagged their shoes, lysol’d their luggage and we all wore masks for the trip home. I kept the fan on high with outside air in the truck. It was a 3 hour drive, so slippers off and dirty shoes in the rest stops.

The airport was eery. In 1.5 hours I saw one plane land and one plane take off. Not a single plane in the taxiways. I was the ONLY vehicle in the arrival area at 4:00 PM. Silent planes at all the gates and 5 people waiting for rides, including my parents. Freaky…

that all that could be done was done. I guess we’ll know in two weeks… sigh.

I did get to see my kids, who live about 20 minutes away from DTW. I dropped off a big bag of masks I made for them. They aren’t able to sell their eggs to coworkers anymore and the hens lay 3 dozen a day. I brought home 7 dozen.

Homestead · May 18, 2020, 1:29pm

Ummm…

Looking at those numbers…

21% mortality rate? (Deaths: 88,471 / Resolved cases: 414,468= 0.213456 = 21.346%)

1,482,863 cases out of a population of 330 million? That’s less that one half of one percent of the population that have it/have had it? (1,482,863/330,000,000= 0.004935 = 0.4935%

That’s 48,500,000 to achieve the 70% of population to have it for herd immunity that I’ve seen used.

Obviously there is something wrong with my math…

Splutty · May 18, 2020, 2:20pm

They’re tested and confirmed cases as far as I’m aware. Not ‘this many people have/had it’.

So the actual amount of infected people is far higher than that, which is kind of what the whole debate about what the ‘actual mortality rate’ is, is about. But I guess it’s more important to politically fight over what the exact percentage is, than just decide it’s “Way Too High”

Splutty · May 18, 2020, 2:26pm

Some numbers from over here (from yesterday/Sunday):

323 total people in IC, 14 people died yesterday, 36 hospitalizations. Numbers are slowly decreasing. We’ll see how it holds up now that things are slowly opening up again.

Population 17 million’ish.

Homestead · May 18, 2020, 2:39pm

… Well… That reminds me of what I used to say to the scientists at work…

“If it isn’t the number you are using, why are you telling me that number?”

Seems to me it would be much more efficient for the column to say “Estimated cases” - and show the number of estimated cases - than to say ‘total cases’ when it is accepted and acknowledged NOT to be the ‘total cases.’

My earlier comment about messaging - words ARE important. Not being clear leads to confusion.

Showing numbers that say “21% of people who get it die” and then ‘saying’ but it isn’t that many… well… It isn’t any wonder people doubt what they hear. The numbers chosen to be displayed don’t support the message. The fault doesn’t lie with the listener. It lies with the message.

If I might use an example:

When you look at Hurricane forecast cones today, you don’t see that line down the middle that you used to see in old forecasts. I’m the reason for that.

That line is just what the forecasters used to extrapolate the cone. The only purpose it serves is as the center point from which to draw the edges of the cone. It isn’t even where the models actually say the hurricane is going, since they look at many models and then ‘art’ their prediction.

The ‘message’ is actually 'if you are anywhere within this cone, there is a 66.66% chance you will be hit by the center of the hurricane at landfall."

But by displaying that line, what they ‘conveyed’ was ‘the hurricane is going to follow this line.’

People saw the line and if they weren’t near it, said to themselves, I’m safe. Which is NOT what was meant. It wasn’t the fault of the people seeing it - it was the fault of the people sending ‘the message.’

When I asked the scientists (NHC meteorologists), “If that line isn’t important to the people receiving the message, why are you showing it”… they dropped it.

The same applies here. The ‘cases’ aren’t the number being used. Showing it is confusing. So people are confused. That isn’t their fault.